ShadowBrokers, the VEP, and You

Quoting Nicolas Weaver in his latest Lawfare article about the ShadowBroker's Windows 0days release, which has a few common thematic errors as relates to the VEP:

This dump also provides significant ammunition for those concerned with the US government developing and keeping 0-day exploits. Like both previous Shadow Brokers dumps, this batch contains vulnerabilities that the NSA clearly did not disclose even after the tools were stolen. This means either that the NSA can’t determine which tools were stolen—a troubling possibility post-Snowden—or that the NSA was aware of the breach but failed to disclose to vendors despite knowing an adversary had access. I’m comfortable with the NSA keeping as many 0-days affecting U.S. systems as they want, so long as they are NOBUS (Nobody But Us). Once the NSA is aware an adversary knows of the vulnerabilities, the agency has an obligation to protect U.S. interests through disclosure.

This is a common feeling. The idea that "when you know an adversary has it, you should release it to the vendor". And of course, hilariously, this is what happened in this particular case, where we learned a few interesting things.

"No individual or organization has contacted us..."

"Yet mysteriously all the bugs got patched right before the ShadowBroker's release!"

We also learned that either the Russians have not penetrated the USG->Microsoft communication channel and Microsoft's security team, or else Snowden was kept out of the loop, from his tweets chiding the USG for not helping MS.

This is silly because codenames are by definition unclassified, and having a LIST OF CODENAMES and claiming you have the actual exploits does not mean anything has really leaked.

The side-understanding here, is that the USG has probably penetrated ShadowBrokers to some extent. Not only were they certain that ShadowBrokers had the real data, but they also seem to have known their timeframe for leaking it...assuming ShadowBrokers didn't do their release after noticing many of the bugs were patched.

And this is the information feed that is even more valuable than the exploits: What parts of your adversary have you penetrated? Because if we send every bug to MS that the Russians have, then the Russians know we've penetrated their comms. That's why a "kill all bugs we know the Russians have" rule as @ncweaver posits and which is often held as a "common-sense policy" is dangerous and unrealistic without taking into consideration extremely complex OPSEC requirements for your sources. Any patch is an information feed from you, about your most sensitive operations, to your enemy. We can do so only with extreme caution.

Of course the other possibility, looking at this timeline carefully, is that the ShadowBrokers IS the USG. Because the world of mirrors is a super fun place, is why. :)